bigstockphoto_Durham_Wheat_In_Man_S_Hand_1349376.jpgThe crackdown by state and federal authorities on raw-milk dairies, and the generally inhospitable environment for sustainable agriculture, is assuming a new sense of irony as global shortages of food commodities take hold.

For all those who’ve been worrying about the time when our food system freezes up, and we come to depend on locally-produced products from small farms—well, we may be closer than most people imagine. Increasingly ominous forecasts have been appearing in various media about the possibility that basic commodities like wheat, corn, and rice, not to mention oil and copper, are in perilously short supply

The publication Milkweed, a dairy industry newspaper, is predicting that the world has six to eight weeks supply of wheat, and predicts: “Famine looms in the near future.” (Unfortunately, this publication is only available in paper form.) Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal published a front-page article on “Malthusian Fears,” suggesting that the world is running short of key commodities, and reporting that various countries are hording wheat and rice, and experiencing food riots. Steve Bemis, a frequent source of information on this blog, reports that his wife learned on a recent trip to Africa that United Nations relief supplies of food are drying up.

Where will all this lead? Certainly higher prices for basic foods. But having a friendly farmer or two in the neighborhood may become as important as having a connection with a local gas station was during the 1970s gas shortage. (Thanks to Steve Bemis for alerting me

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Something I meant to point out a little while back, before latest upheaval on California raw milk…It takes a big man to apologize, but Nathanael Johnson, author of the Harper’s Magazine article on raw milk in the April issue, has done just that.

After Organic Pastures Dairy Co. owner Mark McAfee read the article he called Nate to request a retraction of the statement that “the tainted milk came from Organic Pastures…” Nate agreed he erred.

In an email to Mark, Nate stated: “I recognize that you are right about this – the state agencies made a connection based on the evidence at hand which was epidemiological – not direct evidence. There was no direct link ever made between the milk and the disease – that is – the state labs were not able to grow this particular genetic serotype of E. coli found in the children, from your milk. The people I talked to talked about strong linkages but never a direct linkage. Furthermore the state never announced that OP milk was the cause of the outbreak. They strongly suspected it was – hence the recall. I’m sorry for the mistake – after spending almost two years on this I lost that detail. In general I think we can agree that there was a presumption of guilt – but it was sloppy for me to fudge that into an actual announcement.”

As a journalist who has written extensively about raw milk, I can empathize with Nate. I’m sure many readers who have debated the issue back and forth on this blog since it came up in late 2006, following the Michigan confiscation of Richard Hebron’s raw milk and revelations it stemmed from a case of foodborne illness, can empathize as well. The debate about raw milk is complex enough, but overlay the issues of foodborne illness, genetics, and public health practices, and it can be overwhelming.

Then, if on top of all that, you overlay ideology and personal biases, you have a formula for confusion, and even animosity.

One of the things I have noticed in the telling and re-telling of the events surrounding the illnesses of the children in California is the belief that somewhere in some state office there is an accurate recounting of what happened. As in…isn’t there someone who has all the interviews and the forms that were filled out and the lab reports who can set us all straight?

Implicit in that question is a longing to want to believe in the public officials who are responsible for keeping tabs on such things, especially public health officials. The last thing we want to believe is that they would let their personal biases get in the way.

But as I’ve pointed previously in assessing the statement they put together on the illnesses, there is, at a minimum, a troubling amount of sloppiness in their accounts. And they won’t provide us with the backup data based on privacy considerations.

On top of that, you have the parties involved—the parents, the lawyers, OPDC—which all have their own interests.

But in making his apology, Nate has at least helped bring us back to a key point, which is that, despite linkages, there is nothing conclusive in these illnesses.